Groundhog predictions and climatic patterns in winter 2024
This is the opinion of Lauren Sitzman, CSB sophomore on behalf of the CSB+SJU Sustainability Office.
Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, predicted an early spring this year. While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) places the family of groundhogs at a 30% successful prediction rate, we can understand more about the current weather by examining the climatic factors at play.
Even though winter is not over until the end of February, we have had warmer than average temperatures in January. According to the SC-ACIS, St. Cloud’s average temperature for January is 10.3 degrees Fahrenheit, with the average high being 44 degrees Fahrenheit. Jan. 31 clocked the warmest winter temperature so far at 55 degrees Fahrenheit, which comes close to the record of 56 degrees recorded on Jan. 24, 1981.
One reason that explains weather and climatic patterns is the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, events that alternate three to seven years. They are opposite phases of natural climate patterns across the Pacific Ocean that can influence temperature and precipitation across the United States and other parts of the world. The location of tropical rainfall impacts atmospheric circulation patterns and jet streams in the mid-latitudes.
La Niña events describe high blocking pressure in the Pacific Ocean and push the jet stream high into the North Pacific, causing winters in Minnesota to be cooler and wetter. El Niño events are essentially the opposite, having low pressure in the Pacific Ocean where the jet stream is further South, meaning Minnesota winters are typically warmer and drier (NOAA Climate.gov). It is typical for winter temperatures to peak in December or early January during El Niño events.
El Niño and La Niña create unique impacts from each other, but both typically last nine to 12 months, developing in spring and reaching peak intensity in late fall and winter. They signal the probability of a severe winter climate and the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
Additional research suggests that El Niño events are strengthening due to ocean water warming. This year is an El Niño event, which increases the likelihood of more moderate temperate impacts in Minnesota.
On campus, St. John’s Outdoor University tapped the first maple tree of the season on Jan. 29, which is the earliest tapped tree recorded on campus. They began collecting sap on Feb. 1, which is the earliest first collection and beats the previous record set Feb. 18, 2017. The qualification for a tree to be tapped for sap is that it must be below freezing at night and above freezing during the day to allow the sap in the maple tree to flow. Since it is so early in the season, it is impossible to determine this year’s sap and syrup yield. But looking at annual reports for production data in the Arboretum can signal some possible outcomes. In 2012, an El Niño year, there was a January temperature high of 53 degrees Fahrenheit. That year, the record low of only 39 gallons of syrup were produced.
The warm days we have seen in January and February could potentially be attributed to climatic patterns of an El Niño event and atmospheric jet streams. NOAA has designated a 50-60% expectancy to a La Niña event returning within the next few months. While avid cross-country skiers and ice skaters eagerly await freezing temperatures and snow, it is important to learn and understand the climatic effects at work to make this winter warmer than we may expect and start realizing the very real personal impacts of the intense climate sway.