With opening day on Thursday, can the Twins pitching staff overcome the loss of Sonny Gray?

Fresh off a season in which the Minnesota Twins won their first playoff game since 2004, the Twins return largely the same team and open the season on Thursday in Kansas City. With hopes of building off last year’s playoff success, Minnesota comes into 2024 with the monkey off their back and an opportunity to make a playoff run.

Rotation – Nick:

With the departure of Sonny Gray in the offseason, the Twins were tasked with filling his spot in the rotation. Gray finished second in Cy Young voting in 2023, so this wasn’t an easy task for the Twins. Minnesota has elected to fill this spot internally, especially after Anthony DeSclafani, who was acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade, will begin the season on the IL and may possibly miss the whole 2024 season as he has dealt with elbow and forearm injuries. On the bright side, the Twins rotation will be led by Pablo Lopez, who finished seventh in Cy Young voting in 2023 and is one of the favorites for the Cy Young Award in 2024. Lopez impressed in his first year in Minnesota as he finished third in the MLB in strikeouts (234) and ninth in innings pitched (194.0). Lopez looks to build in this success for the Twins in 2024.

Another player in the Twins rotation is Chris Paddack. Paddack pitched just 8 2/3 innings out of the bullpen at the end of last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he is now healthy, built up and ready to start for the Twins this season. Paddack has a goal to pitch 140-160 innings this season. If he can get anywhere close to this number, the Twins would be very happy, and this would certainly help the Twins in a big way.

A third player in the Twins rotation is Joe Ryan. Ryan was phenomenal through June 22 last season, pitching to a 2.98 ERA in 93 2/3 innings before trying to pitch through a left groin strain that landed him on the IL. Ryan struggled in the second half of the season, but if he can make the required adjustments and perform how he did the first half of 2023, Ryan will have a fantastic ‘24 campaign.

Rounding out the Twins rotation will be Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. Ober took a huge step forward in 2023 as he went 8-6 in 26 starts, with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in 144.1 innings pitched. He also picked up 146 strikeouts. The Twins will be ecstatic if he can replicate these numbers this season. Varland has locked up the fifth and final spot in the Twins rotation after the DeSclafani injuries. He will look to take a huge step forward himself after making 17 total appearances and 10 starts last season for Minnesota. Varland went 4-3 with a 4.63 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP and 71 strikeouts in 68 innings pitched.

Bullpen – Andrew:

The Twins bolstered their bullpen by adding four new relievers to an already solid group. The Twins have one of the best relievers in baseball in Jhoan Duran. Duran, who throws a 103 MPH fastball to go along with a 97 MPH splitter and a devastating curveball, had a 2.45 ERA while striking out nearly a third of batters that he faced in 2023. However, Duran will start the year on the injured list with an oblique strain so the Twins will need some relievers to step up in his absence.

One key reliever who will need to step up and carry his momentum from the 2023 season is Griffin Jax. Jax has a 3.60 ERA since becoming a reliever in 2022 and has one of the best sliders in baseball. Over that time, he has struck out 26% of batters. Another pitcher the Twins will lean on is Brock Stewart. Stewart, a minor-league signing last year, debuted in May and was an X-factor for the Twins bullpen. Stewart had a microscopic 0.65 ERA while striking out 36% of batters. Stewart has a history of health problems but he could be a really important piece for the Twins in 2024.

Caleb Thielbar will begin the year on the injured list but will be the Twins most heavily used lefty out of the bullpen when he gets back. The rest of the bullpen will be comprised of Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Jorge Alcala and Kody Funderburk. When Duran, Thielbar and Justin Topa come back from injuries, the Twins figure to have one of the best bullpens in the league.

Predictions AM:

I believe the Twins will win the AL Central again with 88 wins. I think this team has the ability to get to the American League Championship Series if they add one more starting pitcher via trade. This season will be successful if the Twins can get improvements from Ober and Ryan. My bold prediction is that Pablo Lopez takes a step forward and finishes top-three in AL Cy Young voting.

NS:

I also believe the Twins will win the AL Central again this season, but with 90 wins. The revamped bullpen, although a little banged up to open the season, will help the Twins win a few more games than last year. This team has many promising pieces and will now get full seasons out of Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner. This Twins team has the potential to make a deep playoff run, especially if they can fill any needs at the trade deadline. My bold prediction is that Joe Ryan turns into a legit No. 2 starter in the Twins rotation.