Ranking Rookie QBs

As the halfway mark of the NFL season approaches, I would like to take a very, very, very (and I mean very) tentative look at which front offices hit on QB’s during the draft and which did not. Given that the five quarterbacks drafted in the first round have started five games at most, this is certainly not an exact science. Feel free to attack my e-mail inbox.

There is no particularly convincing statistic one can use to declare one of these quarterbacks the clear frontrunner. As a collective, they’ve thrown 23 touchdowns to 27 interceptions, not a terrible ratio for a group struggling to stay on their feet long enough to throw the ball.

Third overall pick Trey Lance, a product of Marshall Senior High School, holds the only positive TD-INT ratio. He’s also been on the field for 280 fewer snaps than the classe’s snap count leader, Mac Jones. Lance has done some impressive things with his legs, and he certainly knows how to utilize his size, but his role as a wildcat QB is no accident. He will have to prove that he possesses the arm talent to start over Jimmy Garoppolo, a talented pocket passer just two years removed from nearly winning a Super Bowl. Lance’s fans will also need a selective memory to look past his horrific first interception. Consider him eliminated from this conversation.

Zach Wilson has given Jets fans something to look forward to, but their front office clearly would’ve been better suited sticking with Sam Darnold. Letting a perfectly serviceable QB go in favor of spending your second overall pick throwing a BYU product out to the wolves is simply not a recipe for success. Wilson has the lowest passer rating of the class at 62.9, and while he has talent, he is by no means in a position to succeed.

Corey Davis and company can’t find separation, the running back room is struggling and defensive talent is eyeing locker rooms in other cities. This is a flawed franchise, and Wilson alone cannot fix that. I expect this will play out in typical Jet’s fashion—need I even clarify what that means?

At the opposite end of the passer rating distribution sits Mac Jones. His 84.6 is the highest in the class, and while I find this statistic troubling for a number of reasons, it’s a solid indicator of how a QB fits into an offensive scheme. Jones also has the most passing yards, his 1,472 are barely ahead of Lawrence’s 1,465.

Jones would be higher on this list if not for the fact that he’s the epitome of a game manager. Perhaps it’s all part of Belichick’s master plan: hold a game manager on his rookie contract while you figure out what the post-Brady era looks like. Nonetheless, Jones lacks the bravado expected of a franchise guy, at least for now. Consider him a hit if only for the fact that he’s exceeding expectations.

Justin Fields, the undisputed No. 2 QB until the sports media declared BYU’s pro day an extension of heaven itself, has been impressive so far. In terms of supporting casts, Fields benefits from being in the best poaition of any of these QB’s. Fields has a lot of help from a top-five defense and an offense which provides him some weapons. He’s arguably the quickest guy on this list (Wilson is a strong contestant for this title) and has proven he can sling it deep. If he can stay healthy, he has serious potential to live out his destiny.

At the top of this descending list sits Trevor Lawrence. He has a relatively competitive receiving corps behind him and strong support from RBs James Robinson and veteran Carlos Hyde. His 75.5 passer rating is second only to Mac Jones, excluding Lance due simply to sample size. Lawrence has recorded two games with 300+ passing yards through week six. He is the only rookie QB to tally over 300 yards in a game. His 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns to go along with them are highly respectable for a guy whose main attribute is his arm.

While providing any definitive answer to the question I posed at the beginning of this article would be silly, I’m going to do it anyway. Miss column? New York and San Francisco. Maybe column? Chicago. Hit column? Jacksonville and New England.